Who Will Win This Year’s Oscar for Best International Feature?
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After another awards season prolonged by the Winter Olympics, we are finally a mere stone’s throw away from the 98th Academy Awards ceremony, which takes place Sunday, March 15, at Hollywood’s Dolby Theatre. So far this year, the impact of global film cultural has proven quite unstable, with PR controversies overshadowing both the Berlin Film Festival and the BAFTAs in February, possibly a mirror of the world as a whole right now, as each day seems to promise a fresh global conflict or scandal.
Despite this chaotic landscape, the machinery of awards season has chugged along, beginning with the ennui of monoculture as Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another seemed to be the unstoppable force. While this film (which I found gratingly inauthentic and certainly not the most superior of the Best Picture nominees) is still the dominant force in the race for most major categories, the past month has seen much shifting in a handful of others, most notably in the acting categories, offering the refreshing chance for some big surprises to go down the night of the Oscars.
As with most years, I am most invested in the race for Best International Feature, historically the category with the most interesting (albeit less mainstream) films. This year’s nominees represent many diverse perspectives from across the globe, and four of the five have managed to nab nominations in other categories, a path becoming easier in the Oscar race in the time since Parasite became the first non-English language title to win Best Picture in 2020. Continue reading to find out Foremost Film’s thoughts on the state of the race and the predicted for Best International Feature at the upcoming 98th Academy Awards.
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‘It Was Just an Accident’
Directed by Jafar Panahi
France
Panahi’s 2025 Cannes Palme d’Or winner was the earliest standout in the race for Best International Feature, having gained even more steam on the fall festival circuit before the Iranian auteur was slapped with another prison sentence in absentia for the “propaganda activities” of his filmmaking. Prompted by Panahi’s own experiences of imprisonment and the revolutionary vibrancy of the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, It Was Just an Accident serves as the director’s most daring work yet, and two conspicuous middle fingers to Iran’s Theocratic overlords.
In lieu of the seismic conflagration of the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran that began on March 28, It Was Just an Accident’s themes of retaliation against the oppressor seem more imperative than ever, hopefully prompting Academy voters to revisit the film as they cast their ballots. Voting took place from February 26 to March 5. While the film (submitted for the category by its French producers, since Iran would never propose it, for obvious reasons) did score an additional nomination for Best Original Screenplay, its absence from Best Picture denotes a clear weakness compared to some of the category’s other multi-nominated entries.
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‘Sentimental Value’
Directed by Joachim Trier
Norway
A richly sketched portrait of a fractured family in creative and existential flux, Sentimental Value wowed audiences at last year’s Cannes (where it took home the Grand Prix) thanks to its superb ensemble performances and emotional heft. Touring the fall festival circuit, the movie arguably lost a bit of steam among critics and audiences alike, perhaps because they expected more from the Norwegian drama after all the initial hype (I myself fell into this camp).
Nevertheless, the film scored an incredible nine Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and four acting nominations, as well as its inclusion in the Best International Feature category, making it among the record holders for international films with the most Oscar nods. Trier’s reputation is unquestionably on the rise among Academy members following his international breakthrough with 2021’s The Worst Person in the World. While the bourgeois-leaning family drama seems less interconnected with the cultural landscape in which it takes place (compared to some of this year’s other nominees), Sentimental Value has clearly struck an emotional chord with Oscar voters this year, marking it as the clear runner in the race for this year’s Best International Feature, an argument bolstered by the film’s recent win in the same category at the BAFTAs, a historical belweather.
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‘Sirât’
Directed by Óliver Laxe
Spain
Sirât, Spain’s submission for Best International Feature, is undisputedly the most arthouse-leaning among this year’s Oscar submissions, a movie with contagious word-of-mouth appeal that has gotten it this far in the race. As Laxe’s punishing vision strands its audiences in the desolate deserts of Northern Africa, Sirât magically reveals itself as a spiritual confluence of sight and sound, a work that simultaneously feels rooted in the foundations of filmmaking while also offering a totally new cinematic experience, possibly the first desert rave meta-thriller. Enough waxing lyrical about the film (my favorite release from 2025), you can read my full rave review for MovieJawn.
Sirât is a remarkable film, but ultimately (and unfortunately) it is just too unconventional for the mainstream-leaning Oscar voting body to push it to win the Best International Feature award. Hopefully, its inclusion in this year’s nominees will only bolster its viewership among audiences who will likely either love it or hate it with intense passion. Also nominated for Best Sound, if the film were to win in that category, it would mark the first victory for an all-female sound team, which includes Laia Casanovas, Amanda Villavieja, and Yasmina Praderas.
Neon
‘The Secret Agent’
Directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho
Brazil
The Secret Agent has turned the heads of cinephiles globally since premiering at Cannes last year, where it scored three big wins for Best Director, Best Actor (Wagner Moura), and the FIPRESCI Prize, a notable feat at a festival that typically prefers to spread the love when it comes to its major accolades. A singular anti-thriller/hangout movie, Filho’s latest once again pays homage to his hometown of Recife, Brazil, while also condemning the Fascistic zeitgeist that crippled the country during the 1970s, “a time of great mischief.”
Awashed in the vibrant colors and textures reflective of Brazil’s diverse cultural landscape, The Secret Agent flaunts a potent vibe that distinguishes it from its competition in this year’s awards race, proven through its wins at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards in the Foreign Language category (although these two voting bodies are not necessarily representative of Academy voters). Heading into “Hollywood’s biggest night” with four nominations (Best Picture, Best International Feature Film, Best Actor, and Best Casting), The Secret Agent proves itself as Sentimental Value’s biggest competitor for the international category. After I’m Still Here covertly took over the category’s race ahead of last year’s Oscars, becoming Brazil’s first Best International Feature winner, the Brazilian bloc of Academy voters is still riding the high, a zeal that could once more push their contender to the big win. Plus, we would all be in for a treat should the handsome and humble Filho give a winning speech.
‘The Voice of Hind Rajab’
Directed by Kaouther Ben Hania
Tunisia
Akin to It Was Just an Accident, Sirât, and The Secret Agent in its tremendous contemporary pertinence, The Voice of Hind Rajab works as a distinctive docudrama reenacting the killing of a young Palestinian girl by the IDF as her Gaza neighborhood was being occupied in January 2024. Utilizing real telephone recordings of the conversations between the girl and the Red Crescent as it labored to save her from the vehicle where she was trapped in the Israeli assault, the movie’s formal devices may not work for everyone, but its emotional impact is undeniable.
Despite winning the Grand Jury prize upon premiering at last fall’s Venice Film Festival, The Voice of Hind Rajab is on a bit of the back foot in terms of word-of-mouth buzz and awards campaigning compared to its Cannes-premiering competitors, particularly in consideration of many of the movie A-listers supporting the film as executive producers (Brad Pitt, Rooney Mara, Joaquin Phoenix, Spike Lee, just to name a few). I think the film’s slight cultural footprint on the awards circuit points to the Western world’s continued hesitancy to support Palestinian experiences and stories (films like No Other Land and Yes struggled to find U.S. distributors). While its Oscar nomination will hopefully grow its audience, I do not see The Voice of Hind Rajab as a serious contender for the Best International Feature award.